The fog of war is a very real thing. Not only are accurate information and assessments of the status and performance of one’s own forces difficult to gather and maintain, gathering the same about one’s opponent is even more difficult, maybe exponentially so. Add to that the understandable and expected, almost imperative, desire to deceive one’s opponent, and the situation, especially for an outsider, becomes even more opaque. The Chinese military strategist and tactician Sun Tzu in The Art of War wrote the following almost 2,500 years ago, and this basic tenet still holds today:
“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”
Those trying to follow Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are dealing with the same phenomena. Certainly, the ubiquitous drone footage and satellite imagery have made this war in some ways the most accessible in history. The fact someone from the United State or Europe can travel to the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, almost unhindered, is another. But where information is spread around the globe at the speed of light, so is disinformation.
With that said, I think one thing about the current war is abundantly clear and undeniable. Ukraine has done a remarkable job in increasing their ability to arm themselves. Just four years ago, Ukrainian civilians spontaneously unified in an effort to hastily manufacture Molotov cocktails to ward off advancing Russian tanks. What limited amounts of advanced weaponry Ukraine did have and were relying on, like the Turkish Bayraktar drones and handheld American Javelin and British NLAW anti-tank missiles, were not indigenous to Ukraine. The Ukrainians had to beg and plead for the Biden Administration to supply them with the HIMARS systems, which had a range of close to 200 miles, only to belatedly be supplied them initially on the condition they not be used to strike within Russia proper. Ukraine was very much fighting a defensive fight.
Fast forward to today. Those Molotov cocktails have been replaced with a plethora of Ukrainian manufactured small FPV drones which have made Russian armor almost extinct on the battlefield. The Bayraktars, Javelins, NLAW’s, and HIMARS, have largely been replaced by indigenous Ukrainian unmanned systems. And not only that, Ukraine now has the ability to strike hundreds of miles within Russian proper to destroy both military targets and the source of Russia’s wealth, its oil storage and production facilities, with weapons developed and manufactured in Ukraine. In a few short years Ukraine has developed in some sectors world leading drone technology, both hardware and software. Until recently, this weaponry has only been for domestic Ukrainian consumption, but some of this technologically advanced weaponry has been approved for export to Ukrainians allies in limited amounts.
The significance of this development in military technology by the Ukrainians is of historical significance and represents a seismic shift in the World’s geopolitical landscape.
The sad truth of the matter is that when Ukraine’s primary export was just wheat to feed the poor and hungry in the Third World, Russia’s invasion of the country was of concern to outsiders, especially Russia’s near neighbors in Europe, but could be relatively easily ignored by the big brains in the United States. Remember President Trump’s taunt of Ukrainian President Zelensky, “You have no cards to play!” Afterall, a lot of money has been made and will be made in the future by the exploitation of Russia’s vast natural resources, by Russians and non-Russians alike. Oil money buys a lot of friends. Ask the Saudis and the Emirates. Better not to alienate the hands that feed you.
And no one worships money as their God like Wall Street, and the Wall Street devotees who treat the rise and fall of their stock portfolios as the measure of their worth as human beings, as well as the worth of others. Enter in now the Ukrainian drone industry. Just tentatively. Just peaking in the door, maybe even only a basement window. But make no mistake, the opportunity is too real now for Wall Street to ignore.
As investors “in the know” salivate over Optimus based on the ever more bold predictions of the anti-Nostradamus, real investors are looking at a real field of dreams ready for harvest and are readying their sickles. These investors are marveling at the Ukrainians ability to develop and constantly improve upon unmanned systems, which are battle tested and proven, in the harshest of environments. No single tech overlord, none of Epstein’s “associates” like Musk, Gates, Thiel, and Brin, but thousands upon thousands of individuals sacrificing and working toward a common goal. When the war is over, and all wars do end eventually, the products of this explosion of Ukrainian ingenuity will be available for export to the rest of the world, and more importantly the technology will be ready to be converted to more commercial and civilian purposes. Literally beating swords into plowshares.
Ukraine will be ripe. Think Japan after World War II, Taiwan after the Chinese Civil War, and South Korea after the Korean War. Or more obviously, the rest of eastern Europe after freeing themselves from the Russian yoke and communism. I have little doubt that the Ukrainian identity forged in war will work hard to keep the spoils of their labors in country, as they absolutely must, but they will dearly need investment, which will come.
So Wall Street will beat a path to Ukraine’s door. In fact, they already stealthily are.