I wrote a prediction of what would happen in Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine about a month ago, soon after the Ukrainian’s extremely successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. What I Expect in the War in Ukraine – Missives to the Abyss (latterdaydad.com) In that post I stated that I expected that Ukraine would not be very aggressive in pushing their forces forward either up north near Kharkiv or in the south in Kherson as a follow-up to their very successful Kharkiv counteroffensive. I anticipated that the Ukrainians would use their forces to hold the Russians in place in both the north and the south and then would push toward the Sea of Azov to cut the Russians supply lines north of the Sea of Azov and then hit the Kerch Bridge south of the Sea of Azov.
I was right in that the Ukrainians have made only relatively modest gains, compared to the incredible gains from the Kharkiv counteroffensive, in both the north and the south since mid-September. I was also right in that I predicted that the Ukrainians would try to hit the Kerch Bridge, which they successfully did on October 6 and in saying that the Ukrainians did not need to collapse the whole bridge but only damage it in order to greatly restrict the Russians ability to resupply their troops in southern Ukraine.
What I did not expect was that the Ukrainians would be able to hit the Kerch Bridge over the Sea of Azov, which is how I think it was hit, without access by land to the shore. How the Ukrainians were able to do this is still unknown. In retrospect hitting the Kerch Bridge prior to cutting off the overland resupply routes north of the Sea of Azov appears to be a much better strategy then cutting off the north supply route first. The northern supply routes are much closer to the front and much more vulnerable to Ukrainian weapons, particularly HIMARS.
Ukraine’s strategy has put them within reach of decimating Russia’s ground forces in the Kherson region. A large number of Russia’s forces are on the wrong side of the Dnipro River with no quick and efficient way to be either resupplied or to retreat. The damage done to the Kerch Bridge makes resupplying Russian forces even on the “safe” side of the Dnipro much more difficult, if not impossible. This will be Russia’s Manzikert.
I ended my last prediction with this paragraph:
“If the Ukrainians can succeed in these two tasks, cutting Russia’s supply lines west overland both north and south of the Sea of Azov, the already low morale of the under supplied Russian troops in southeast Ukraine will plummet even further. And no army, even one with a high morale, can fight for long without food, water, and ammunition. Putin’s game could be essentially over at that point.”
Putin began his full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 of this year without an exit strategy. Putin and his nationalist cohorts in Moscow took no consideration for the desire of the Ukrainian people to determine their own fates. Russia invaded with an arrogant overestimation of their own abilities and a prideful disdain of the will and abilities of the Ukrainian people and the West’s willing to support Ukraine. Included in the West is the peoples of Poland, the Baltics, and the other former communist countries and Soviet Republics who know best the character of Russia’s leaders. The Moscow elites and Putin are about to see their forces in Kherson trapped and eliminated, a historical defeat for Russia that no amount of propaganda will be able to hide.