Like many at home and abroad I heard of the argument or “blow-up,” or whatever other word you want to use, between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Donald Trump, and to a lesser extent Vice-President JD Vance, in the Oval Office a few days ago. I watched snippets of it afterward and then watched and listened to the full news conference as well as President Zelenskyy’s subsequent interview with Fox News Anchor Bret Baier and read and watched a wide range of on-line reactions. The reaction that I found to be most constructive was the one from retired four-star general Jack Keane, a Fox News contributor, but more importantly the Chairman of the Institute for the Study of War. The ISW is probably the most respected open source think tank covering Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, although clearly pro-Ukraine, a trusted source for objective information on and analysis of the ongoing conflict.
Unlike the vast majority of commentators, General Keane did not fixate on placing blame on either President Zelenskyy or President Trump but sought to understand the position of both leaders and envision a path forward. His analysis did not degenerate into an emotional call for President Zelenskyy to resign or calling President Trump “Putin’s lapdog.” No talk of ambushes, a lack of gratitude, or Russian assets. He focused on the need to clear a path forward.
In watching the full news conference, it was clear that the exchanges were tense from the very beginning but that was to be expected. Both leaders have various and diverse constituencies they need to satisfy and although their nation’s interests overlap, they are not identical. Initially the men seemed to stay on point until, tellingly, the media began to ask questions. Even then, despite some of the media’s best efforts, the leaders tried to keep focus. When the one reporter inanely stated that the American people felt President Zelenskyy disrespected the Oval Office by not wearing a suit and asked if he even owned one, President Zelensky handled the question with ease and President Trump leaned toward him and said something to the effect “I like what you’re wearing.” As an aside, did that reporter happen to see the news conference Elon Musk had wearing a T-shirt, baseball cap, and jacket with his four-year-old on his shoulders while a glum looking President Trump sat at his desk in that very same office just days earlier? Too many in the government, the media, and the public at large have lost sight of the fact that this is a real war with real people’s lives being destroyed and to treat it as just another sparring match for bragging rights between Democrats and Republicans is not constructive.
With that said, what can be said about both leaders that points toward a way forward?
One of the things that President Trump said to President Zelenskyy after things got heated was that President Zelenskyy was gambling with starting World War III. In a very real sense, I think this is true. Russia has on paper a vast nuclear arsenal and has threatened their neighbors in Europe, and the United States, repeatedly over the last three years with attack if we continue to arm Ukraine. By fighting back against Russia’s aggression Ukraine is risking a broader conflict. Does that mean the Ukrainians should sacrifice their country and their freedoms and put themselves once more under the thumb of the Russians? For those outside Ukraine, the question should be is the world more or less likely to devolve into World War III if Russia is victorious in its efforts to conquer Ukraine or if Russia is defeated? I think the real military leaders throughout the Western world would be in almost total agreement that the world is less likely to stumble into World War III if Ukraine wins this war than if Russia does.
President Zelenskyy has understood this fact and has used it repeatedly, and some would say at ad nauseum, to argue that arming Ukraine is not charity or something that the United States and others should do simply out of the goodness of our hearts, but it is in our own best interests and those of the rest of Europe. President Zelenskyy is desperately trying to gather from wherever he can the resources the Ukrainians need to fight off an exponentially larger foe, all while keeping his own country unified. And for whatever mistakes he has made and will make he has done an amazing job. You see politicians in the United States, both Democrat and Republican, get puffed up with themselves because they won an election by a few percentage points, all of a sudden thinking they are the smartest person in every room they enter. On the other hand, President Zelenskyy has led a country that has fought to a standstill over the course of three years what was perceived as the second most powerful military in the world, a military that the United States has literally spent trillions of dollars over the decades to defend against, and he still stands firm for his people.
In President Trump’s defense, although he has been wrong about many of the particulars, such as his often-stated claim that millions and millions have died in the war, he has been right about the larger and more important points. When Russia invaded and took Crimea and part of Luhansk and Donetsk in 2014 the Administration of President Barrack Obama largely shrugged their shoulders. When President Trump was elected in 2016 one of the things he did was continuously press our NATO allies to increase the percentage of their GDP they spend on Defense in large part to deter further Russian aggression. As much as President Trump speaks of his good relationship with Russian President Putin, he pushed, prodded, and begged our NATO allies to better arm themselves against him. During the media questioning in the Oval Office, President Trump signaled out for praise Poland for strengthening their defense, the same nation Russian propaganda has specifically targeted for helping Ukraine. President Trump, not President Obama, agreed to provide Ukraine with the Javelin anti-tank missiles that the Ukrainians used to such great effect to stop Russia’s initial thrusts. President Trump in his first term specifically criticized Germany for planning a pipeline for Russian oil because he argued it would make them too dependent on Russia. In fact, President Trump in his first term signed into law sanctions against those who helped build the pipeline and was criticized by the European Union and Russia for doing so. Are these the actions of a Russian agent? Nord Stream 2: Trump approves sanctions on Russia gas pipeline
President Trump says he believes he can broker a lasting peace between Ukraine and Russia, and he wants to try. President Zelenskyy and many others are obviously very skeptical, but I fail to see the downside in making a good faith effort. I find the Trump Administration’s refusal to state the obvious, that Russia invaded Ukraine, to be distasteful but that is the strategy President Trump thinks best in what he sees as his role as a moderator. Hard to say this is a betrayal by the United States when President Biden’s Administration heaped on rhetorical support but only doled out weapons in dribs and drabs, fearful of Russia’s response, and never seemed to articulate or envision any end-game to the war.
In the end, the fighting in Ukraine began when Russian President Putin ordered Russian troops to invade Ukraine and the Ukrainian people fought back. If Putin had not decided to attack or the Ukrainian people had decided not to defend themselves, there would be no war in Ukraine today. Likewise, the war will end when Putin decides to no longer attack, or the Ukrainian people decide no longer to fight back. What others throughout the world do and say can certainly influence the course of the fighting in Ukraine, especially as to what actions others do or do not take in regards to Russia and/or Ukraine, but those two are the only two that can end the fighting: Putin and the Ukrainian people. Unlike President Putin, Ukrainian President Zelensky is not a dictator and therefore can only end the war on terms acceptable to the Ukrainian people. Any resolution President Zelensky may agree to that his people, especially those fighting on the front lines, do not agree to does not end the fighting. The Ukrainians will fight on with or without President Zelenskyy.
America certainly has a great deal of influence over the outcome of Russia’s invasion because through a slow and painful process we have provided Ukraine with a great deal of the weaponry that they are using to great effect to defend themselves and destroy the war making capabilities of one of our historical enemies. But no one should forget that immediately after the invasion began and before American weaponry began arriving in greater mass the Ukrainians were defending their land with homemade Molotov cocktails. Since that time Ukraine has been diligently and effectively building up their own ability to arm themselves as well as attack Russia’s ability to continue to attack and more importantly to fund their attacks.
Ukraine is not a nation of beggars waiting for others to do their work for them and should not be treated as such.