Is Famine Coming?

Even the most committed urban dweller knows that plants grow from seeds, and if seeds aren’t planted in the ground no plants will grow. Most probably are aware or intuitively know that for farmers there is a “planting season,” followed by a “growing season,” and followed finally by the “time to harvest.” Without a planting season there will be no growing season and finally, no harvest.

Farmers know as well that the same seeds planted in different soils will yield different harvests. Different soils and different climates favor the growing of different crops. Some soils are simply better for growing crops.

Some of the most productive soil in the world is the “black earth” in Ukraine. Ukrainian agricultural exports feed tens of millions worldwide, particularly in many poorer countries. At least Ukrainian agricultural exports did feed many of world teeming masses in the past.

With Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the future food security of untold tens of millions is now in question. With a quarter of Ukraine’s population displaced and a tenth refugees in foreign lands, will Ukraine’s agricultural sector still be able to plant the seeds from which the plants grow that feed tens of millions? With hundred of thousands of Ukraine’s able-bodied men fighting to fend off Russia’s invading forces, how much labor will be left to tend the “black earth” in Ukraine?

Of course, none of these concerns are concerns of Putin’s. His single-minded focus is on his own self-aggrandizement. Many others throughout the world may also be unconcerned, not necessarily because of malice or even indifference, but more so because of complacency and ignorance. But if the seeds aren’t planted, and the plants don’t grow, and there is a significantly diminished harvest or no harvest in Ukraine to export at all, the rest of the world will have no choice but to pay attention.

Starving people don’t typically stay in place, unless forced to. Mothers and fathers who can’t feed their families where they are will move to were they think they can find food. Humans have been doing that for literally hundreds of thousands of years. This time will be no different, except perhaps in scale. The harvest this year in Ukraine may just be another harvest of sorrow, but this time for the whole world.

The suffering is just beginning.